President Trump got the results he envisioned when he unilaterally announced yesterday the completion of a peace deal with Iran that would open the Strait of Hormuz and do many other wonderful Trumpian things. Today oil is down, and stock markets are skyrocketing worldwide. The best part, of course, is that global attention is focused on Trump, who is in France this week for the G-7 summit.
After Trump yesterday boldly announced that “we have peace for our time” (Neville Chamberlain’s phrase, borrowed here for emphasis), many commentators said, “The devil is in the details.” And that’s the interesting — and alarming — part.
Neither the U.S. nor Iran has released any details of the so-called “finalized” memorandum of understanding (MOU). Asked today at the G-7 Summit when the details would be released, Trump hemmed and hawed and then said it might be “sometime after the signing” on Friday.
Natch, because there are no agreed-upon details, just Trump with more of his art-of -the-deal strategy in promulgating a “truthful hyperbole.” In other words, Trump hopes what he’s saying is in the agreement will actually be in the agreement when — and if — it is signed.
And that “if” is quite problematic. I give the probability of a signing actually happening on Friday at 50-50. I also give the possibility of an Iranian delegation actually showing up in Switzerland at 50-50. However, I give negotiations continuing well past Friday, fraught with conflicting statements from Trump and Iran, a 100-percent chance.
Of course, there’s also the possibility that the details are so Iran-friendly that Trump doesn’t want to discuss them, and he’s buying time to figure out how to spin them. For instance, Iran claims it will be charging “fees” instead of “tolls” to transit the Strait. It also mentions a $12 billion upfront payment.
Call this summary pessimism if you like, but I prefer to think of it as healthy skepticism, especially given our president’s track record of just making stuff up to suit his needs.
POSTSCRIPT: Turns out that JD Vance told CNBC or some other network that the MOU has already been remotely signed. This makes matters even more suspicious. My guess: Advantage Iran. Cover-up: Trump administration.
