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Is the Hindenburg Omen Creeping Up on the Stock Market?

Few technical indicators carry a name as ominous as the Hindenburg Omen. Named after the 1937 airship disaster, the metric was developed in 1995 by the blind mathematician and market technician Jim Miekka. Its primary goal is straightforward yet ambitious: to warn investors of an increased probability of a severe stock market correction or an outright crash. Rather than waiting for major stock indexes to plummet, the Hindenburg Omen inspects what is happening beneath the surface. It is a study of market breadth—specifically designed to detect structural fractures in the market before headline numbers begin to reflect them. How the Hindenburg Omen Works In a healthy bull market, a rising tide lifts most boats. As broad market indexes climb, the vast majority of individual equities advance in tandem, generating a large number of new 52-week highs and very few new 52-week lows. Conversely, during a broad decline, new lows surge while new highs dry up. The Hindenburg Omen searches for a dangerous divergence: a market that is reaching higher ground while simultaneously experiencing a surge in breakdowns. This dynamic indicates severe internal dispersion. In such an environment, a narrow contingent of heavyweight stocks (such as mega-cap technology leaders) can prop

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Rubio Gives the Speech of the Decade: Marco in 2028!

I saw only snippets of the speech given today by Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Greece, with the mighty Parthenon dwarfing him in the background. But today, Marco Rubio was a giant, delivering a speech that I doubt even Ronald Reagan could have articulated. In this speech, Rubio traced the roots of America’s independence and liberties to the Glory that was Greece, and asks the nations of the West to return to the principles and pursuits of that ancient but glorious civilization. I am providing a link below so you can reach his entire speech in its magnificence, but here are some highlights: Here, in Athens, we found the first full realization of all the essential traits that would come to define the West: fierce individuality and relentless ambition; daring exploration and invention; a yearning for discovery, for adventure, risk and glory.  An insatiable curiosity about the world and the principles by which it operates, a hunger to know the mysteries of nature and grasp the secrets of the cosmos.  An impatience with the notion of impossibility, chafing at all boundaries and limits, straining to peer into the depths of the unknown. But it is not just the ambition

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My Take

Maybe Trump Hasn’t Ceded Taiwan to China — Yet

The U.S. is deploying an anti-ship missile system to Japan’s westernmost island, only 68 miles from Taiwan. As part of Keen Sword, the largest joint US-Japanese biennial military exercise, the U.S. Marines will deploy the system to the island of Yonaguni. The Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, or NMESIS, has a range of 115 miles and can intercept Chinese vessels off the coast of Taiwan. Chinese officials, aware of the development, are cautioning that it may step up coast guard and naval activity in the area in response. In the two face-to-face meetings they’ve conducted this year, the issue of Taiwan has been presented to President Trump as a “hands off” proposition by China’s Xi Jinping. In response, Trump has put on hold an arms shipment to Taiwan, leaving in doubt his commitment to the island democracy. The Okinawa Defense Bureau first disclosed the NMESIS deployment on October 1, and said it will also include a Marine Air Defense Integrated System, or Maidas.

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What Happened to Christa Pike’s Two Accomplices?

Christa Pike, the convicted Tennessee murderer who survived two lethal injections and is now conscious and talking, was not alone in the crime for which she received the death penalty. She and two others tortured and murdered 19-year-old Colleen Slemmer in 1995 out of jealousy and anger. Her boyfriend and accomplice, Tadaryl Shipp, was also convicted of murder, but since he was 17, he could not be given the death penalty. He was sentenced to life in prison, plus 25 years. His lone parole appeal has been denied., but further appeals are possible. The third accomplice, Shadolla Peterson, copped a deal with prosecutors, pled guilty to being an accomplice, and was given six years’ probation. Today, a hearing was held regarding Pike’s sentence and whether the death penalty should be commuted. The judge, however, merely ordered that all evidence in the case be retained for future legal proceedings. Tennessee Governor Bill Lee, following Pike’s botched execution, has ordered a halt to any further executions this year. If Pike is ultimately executed — and the case will probably end up before the Supreme Court — she would be the first woman executed in the U.S. since Amber McLaughlin in January 2023.

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My Take

Can AI Create a Work-Free Utopia?

For centuries, the vision of a work-free society has hovered between philosophical romance and political fantasy. From ancient mythic gardens of effortless sustenance to the nineteenth-century utopian socialists, thinkers have dreamed of a world where human beings are finally unshackled from daily toil. Today, the rapid ascendance of artificial intelligence and advanced robotics has pulled that dream out of speculative literature and planted it squarely into mainstream economic discourse. Yet whether AI will build a genuine post-work utopia depends far less on algorithmic ingenuity than on how human institutions govern the transition. While artificial intelligence holds the raw technical potential to automate complex labor and generate unprecedented material abundance, translating computational power into widespread human liberation requires surmounting steep economic, ecological, political, and psychological hurdles. In his 2019 book Human Compatible and subsequent lectures, computer scientist Stuart Russell posed the foundational question that the technology sector must confront: “What if you succeed?” If the AI research community achieves its ultimate objective—systems capable of performing all human cognitive and physical tasks at superhuman speed and negligible cost—the consequences will reverberate far beyond computer science. Technology may supply the engine of abundance, but human governance will decide whether that engine powers universal

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Israel Marks Vivid Memories of Oct. 7, 2023

Israelis turned out today to mark the third anniversary of the assault on its military and citizens by agents of Hamas on October 7, 2023. A particularly touching tribute was held at the Re’im musical festival site, which was overrun by Hamas militants at dawn. More than 360 celebrants were slain and dozens taken hostage. The assault into Israeli territory, uncharacteristically unforeseen by Israeli security forces, led to brutal fighting in Gaza and the Peninsula as the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) took the fighting to Hamas. A peace deal brokered by President Trump is still being worked out, with Hamas unwilling to disarm and Israel unwilling to withdraw to its pre-war territorial boundary. The fighting has also spurred antisemitic demonstrations in Western countries, along with protests favoring the Palestinian side. A national memorial service is scheduled for this evening in Tel Aviv, with thousands of Israelis expected to attend. The “Kumu” movement (“Rise Up” in Hebrew) is organizing the event to honor October 7 survivors and their families. It will be hosted by former hostage Eli Sharabi and actress Shani Cohen.

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Newsom Says Trump is Mentally Unfit and Should Take the 25th (Amendment)

President Trump, jokingly or not, yesterday offered up California as a sacrificial lamb in the war with Iran, saying of the Iranians: “They can take out a city. Let ’em take out Los Angeles. Let ’em take out San Diego.” He said it would “a very small price to pay” to settle the war. The crowd in Nebraska cheered. This led California Governor Gavin Newsom — whom I not so affectionately refer to as Grabbin’ Gruesome — to call for the removal of Trump, using the 25th Amendment. He cited the reason as being that the president is “mentally ill,” adding that he is “dangerous and delusional.” San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria snapped, “San Diego is not collateral damage.” The White House largely played down the comments as being said in jest. “The media freakout over ⁠President Trump’s comments is not rooted in reality. He was clearly stating US cities would have been threatened if a nuclear Iran hadn’t been stopped,” White House Director of Communications Steven Cheung wrote on social media.

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