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Depression1
My Take

Is the Bond Market Signalling a Recession LIke 2008?

The macroeconomic backdrop preceding the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) shares several apparent similarities with recent market conditions—most notably aggressive central bank rate hikes, restrictive monetary policy, and prolonged yield curve inversions. However, beneath these headline parallels lie profound structural differences in banking capitalization, consumer debt exposure, and systemic leverage. While the bond market currently reflects classic late-cycle dynamics, the fundamental transmission mechanisms that drove the 2008 collapse are notably absent. Macroeconomic Comparison: 2006–2008 vs. Current Conditions Macro Metric Pre-2008 Crisis (2006–2007) Today (Late 2026) Strategic Implication Federal Funds Rate Hiked from 1.00% to 5.25% Peak held near 5.25%–5.50%, stabilized around 3.75%–4.00% Both cycles featured aggressive monetary tightening designed to cool inflation and growth. Yield Curve Spread (10Y–2Y) Inverted continuously (Jan 2006 – Mar 2007) Deeply inverted (July 2022 – Sept 2024); now steepening back to a positive spread (~+0.40% to +0.46%) The un-inversion of the yield curve historically marks the transition from policy tightening toward economic inflection. 10-Year Treasury Yield Fluctuated between 4.50% and 5.25% Fluctuating around 5.20% and 5.25% Both regimes reflect elevated long-term borrowing benchmarks across the broader economy. Banking Sector & Leverage Extreme off-balance-sheet leverage (subprime CDOs, thin capital ratios) Strictly regulated (Basel III standards, robust

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Nixon-CIA
My Take

The Silent Coup That Brought Down Richard Nixon

I remember a Tucker Carlson segment, aired while he was still on Fox, in which he discussed Richard Nixon and his knowledge of the CIA’s involvement in the assassination of John F. Kennedy. This reinforced a scene I remembered from a 2013 documentary on the 50th anniversary of the assassination, which reported to show a CIA agent, riding in a tailing vehicle, firing the fatal shot at Kennedy. Reportedly, Nixon confronted CIA Director Richard Helms about this by telling him, “I know who shot Kennedy.” Unfortunately, that statement and confrontation seem unrecoverable by AI, which I turned to for quick research. Of course, AI skews to the mainstream viewpoint, which usually means a leftist interpretation. Another more recoverable bit of history about Kennedy, the CIA, and the Watergate scandal (detailed in the following AI-generated account) had Nixon telling his chief of staff, H.R. Haldeman, to use Nixon’s knowledge of the “Bay of Pigs” (code phrase for the CIA’s assassination efforts against Kennedy and Fidel Castro) to call off the dogs during the Watergate investigation. With that as my background, here is the AI account of Nixon, the CIA, and Watergate: The standard historical understanding of the Watergate scandal is well

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Launch
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Google Launches AI Chips into Space

As a first step toward building data centers in space, Google partnered with SpaceX today to launch AI chips into space to gauge the potential for more complex ventures. The goal of this mission is to test how Google Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) perform in space. On a blog post, Google said: Project Suncather, as the mission is called, is “a long-term, research moonshot exploring whether space could one day host scalable machine learning infrastructure. In low Earth orbit, satellites can access near-constant sunlight, generating up to eight times more solar power than on Earth. Eventually, it could be possible to link together multiple constellations of satellites, allowing them to manage larger AI workloads while in orbit.” The chips will run a version of the company’s Gemma AI model for 15 minutes at a time due to heat management constraints, using the open weight model to answer simple queries. Open weight generally means accessible to anybody, like Google’s Gemini. This was not the first such AI venture into space. This past November, a company called Starcloud launched a spacecraft that carried an Nvidia H100 chip on board and demonstrated a version of Google’s Gemini AI from space.  The launch comes only

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NixonGoes
My Take

Was Nixon Framed from the Git-Go?

For half a century, the mainstream narrative of the Watergate scandal has stood largely intact: an embattled administration broke the law, attempted a high-level cover-up, and was ultimately brought to justice by determined investigators, vigilant judges, and the rule of law. Yet a growing body of revisionist research has challenged not the fact of presidential wrongdoing, but the integrity of the legal process that unraveled it. The core question raised by these revisionist scholars is not whether Richard Nixon and his senior aides were entirely innocent actors caught in a political storm. Rather, it is whether the investigation, grand jury maneuvers, and subsequent criminal trials were tainted from the outset by serious prosecutorial and judicial misconduct. In this view, even as Nixon engaged in severe political miscalculations and abuses of power, the justice system charged with holding him accountable compromised the constitutional guarantee of due process to guarantee convictions. Geoff Shepard’s Documentary Case At the center of this reassessment is Geoff Shepard, who served as a young lawyer on Nixon’s White House defense team during the height of the crisis. Over several decades, Shepard has systematically combed through newly unsealed records housed at the National Archives, including internal files from

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Are Trump’s $500 ACA Rebates a Voter Bribe?

The Trump administration is sending out $500 checks, or direct-deposit payments, to purchasers of Obamacare (or ACA, Affordable Care Act) policies during the Biden years. The stated rationale is that the Biden regime overcharged them. Some families with more than one “affected person” will receive multiple $500 checks or direct deposits. In all, close to one million individuals will receive the refund. All well and good until you look at some of the details. For instance, to qualify, you must have an income 400 percent higher than the poverty level, or about $63,000 a year. This may be due to those under that level not having been overcharged, but it seems a bit mysterious. The second mystery component is that the refunds are only going to states where ACA is administered directly by the federal government. Some states, primarily largely Democrat strongholds on both coasts, administer ACA signups themselves. They don’t qualify. In other words, these checks and direct deposits are going out to voters in the Great Middle America, where many states are either red or purple. Is this a vote-buying gambit? You get $500 now and $5,000 if you keep the GOP in charge of both houses.

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Trump’s AI/slash/SI Safety Pitch Falls on Deaf Ears

President Trump gathered today with the nation’s top movers and shakers in the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence (AI) industry. Afterwards, he joined them for an impromptu press conference on the White House driveway, where he attempted to drive home to the world what he views as the message of the confab — that these leaders had all agreed that they would be “morally” bound to ensure AI remains within guardrails to ensure its safety. At the same time, he announced that AI would no longer be called AI, but SI, or superintelligence. Now, whether this new terminology will stick remains to be seen, as most of what Trump announced outside the presidential palace seemed to fall on unbelieving ears. Even his gathered AI/SI executives seemed split on the direction Trump was pointing the industry toward: self-regulation. The reporters seemed universally skeptical. At one point, Trump did mention that a safety review committee of ten might be set up, but there was nothing definite about the announcement as to when or who might be involved. We’re still waiting for Trump’s appointment of an AI Czar, announced more than a week ago, though he hinted that the person he had in mind

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Nick Saban Act Passes the Senate

When the money got going, Nick Saban got going — when the money got going to college athletes, that is. After the Supreme Court opened the floodgates for college athletes to be paid cash rather than just scholarships, University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban — accustomed to yearly national championships — saw the dollar signs on the chalkboard and decided to retire. There was no way a school in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, could compete donor-wise with its bigger northern rivals. Saban quickly bowed out, saying to this day that it had nothing to do with the increased competition. Even on ESPN this morning, he waffled about his reason for retiring when Stephen A. asked about it. Since his “retirement,” Saban has been busy trying to fix the money mess NCAA schools find themselves in, while he himself is enriching himself with lucrative TV deals. He even lobbied Congress for a fix, and in response, the Senate yesterday passed the Protect College Sports Act. Now, it goes to the House for approval. Here are the details of that bill: The legislation officially named the Protect College Sports Act (commonly referred to alongside “Save College Sports” efforts) passed the Senate in a

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