On June 1, President Trump announced a truce (of one sort or another) involving Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel. Basically, all sides would cease and desist, with an emphasis on no strikes on Beirut by Israel.
In a post that day, I predicted the deal would last no more than 72 hours. Indeed, Hezbollah rejected the deal on first blush.
There were skirmishes almost immediately, but now six days later, or 144 hours basically, Israel has indeed struck Beirut, targeting what it said was a Hezbollah command center in the south of the Lebanese capital. Iran in response launched three waves of missiles toward Israel and announced it might not stop. U.S. military bases might also be hit.
Anyway, my 72-hour bet on how long the ceasefire would last — which could have been made only on a prediction market site — would have been a bust if Beirut were the trigger for when the pact was broached.
After the strikes on Israel, Iran’s state media issued a warning that if Israel “expands its attacks on that region or responds to Iran’s actions, it will begin with devastating strikes against the regime and its supporters.”
Meanwhile, Trump continues to insist that a peace deal with Iran is “close.”
Don’t take that bet.
