Iran was able to bring about a ceasefire with negotiations that looked favorable to their side by closing the Strait of Hormuz, and then regulating traffic and charging tolls. It appears that mainly Chinese tankers were allowed through.
This is the strategy that I earlier referred to as putting a “strait”-jacket around the U.S and its war aims.
Indeed, closing off the Strait of Hormuz did prove instrumental in bringing about a ceasefire and negotiations with the U.S., but Iran got snookered by President Trump’s art of the deal. Trump knew from the start that negotiations would fail over the issue of Iran’s nuclear program and its future. He was waiting in the wings with his game of one-upmanship.
Trump is now engineering a naval blockade of the entire strait, so that no ships can get in or out.
This means that nations favored by Iran, such as China, India, and Turkey, will be cut off, as will every other country. These countries, however, can exert influence on the Iranian regime to resolve the situation, and resolve it quickly.
Will this strategy work? Possibly, but in the meantime, oil prices are already surging and stock markets declining in advance. Trump no doubt just chalks this reaction up to the price of winning in war and winning in negotiations.
The blockade is set to take effect at 10 a.m. ET Monday. Any bets on whether Iran blinks, and we’re back to the negotiating table before the blockade is even fully functional?
I say Iran probably hangs tough to see if they can outlast Trump, who will come under intense pressure domestically and internationally to bring back something resembling normalcy, in other words, get the world gushing with petroleum products once again.
Whatever happens, Demofiends will continue talking about war crimes, war powers resolutions, and impeachment. Nothing new there.
N.B. Iran’s preferred method of execution is by hanging, thus my illustration.
