President Trump has signaled to aides that he’s willing to end the war while the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Looks like he’s peered down the road and sees no end in sight to the military assault in quick fashion if the U.S. must somehow secure and patrol the Strait of Hormuz.
Instead, he is now calling on global users of oil and gas products — hint: every nation — to a) buy U.S. gas (and there ain’t enough for global needs), and/or b) come to the table and help open the Strait.
“Iran has been, essentially, decimated,” Trump announced to allies. “The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”
The Trumpster is obviously finding himself in a trap of his own making. Iran isn’t going to come to his terms, and he knows it. So now it appears as if he’ll settle for anything that gets the U.S. out, while it doesn’t look like a complete defeat for our side.
Of course, Iran will spin anything that leaves the Strait of Hormuz in their hands as a defeat for the U.S., which it basically would be. It would mean we spent billions on weapons and personnel bombing the crap out of a country, only to leave the world worse off for it all.
I’ve pictured a scene from the 1970s when an oil embargo resulted in long lines at the gas pumps to refuel your vehicle. Often, you’d wait in line for an hour, only to get to the pump and find a “sold out” sign.
That’s not going to happen here this time since we seem to have ample oil supplies and production capacity, but it could happen to countries — many of them our longtime allies — who depend on oil from the Gulf for their survival.
Trump finds himself in a difficult situation. He needs to end things quickly, or the GOP is sunk in the midterms (it already is, actually), and a recession could cripple the economy here and abroad. The problem is that Iran ain’t going quietly. Even though Trump claims the “new” leaders of Iran are “more reasonable,” that doesn’t mean they’re dopes. They’ll hang tough and paint Trump into a corner.
Which is where he is right now, frankly. The choice is bombs away on Iran’s electrical grid, and perhaps a ground action on Kharg Island or elsewhere, or another extension of the current moratorium to achieve a “diplomatic” solution. Either way, it looks like a “win-win” for Iran in the propaganda wars.
