The Israeli-U.S. bombardment of Iran and its military and naval assets is now stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. One-fifth of the world’s energy supplies flow through this narrow passageway, whose waters are territorially controlled by various countries, but whose ability to function is controlled by Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
I’ve argued here before that the first objective of the campaign should have been the neutralization, if not downright elimination, of the IRGC. If you want the country to “surrender,” the only hope is the castration of the IRGC and its power.
Taking out mullahs and government officials is important, but the IRGC won’t give up without a fight — which probably means ground troops. Otherwise, a diplomatic solution that basically leaves Iran in the hands of its current leadership is the only solution.
Everything is now contingent upon opening the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, matters were further complicated yesterday when Israel struck Iran’s largest natural gas facility. Now, missiles and drones from Iran are being aimed at neighboring energy centers.
The IRGC is also making sure that oil-laden vessels are too risk-averse to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, where drones, missiles, and mines can quickly take out a billion-dollar oil tanker or other ship.
President Trump has ordered the USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship laden with Marines and their aircraft and weaponry, to the area. Clearly, this indicates a potential use of “boots on the ground,” something Trump railed against in his 2024 presidential campaign.
Even if these Marines occupy Iranian-held islands in the Strait, the IRGC can still launch drones and missiles from just about anywhere. Plus, these forces won’t even arrive for another week.
I’m anxious to see what transpires next in this campaign. Iran’s traditional military and naval units appear to have been set back years through loss of assets, but as I noted, the IRGC will continue functioning even if every last mullah and civilian governing official is wiped out.
Before it gets too messy, Mr. Trump, I humbly advise a diplomatic endgame, especially if you hope to keep the House of Representatives this year and the White House two years later.
